Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.011813 0.013347 0.015006 0.016934 0.019114 0.021503 0.024321
2025-11-23 0.009209 0.011283 0.013714 0.016776 0.020535 0.025003 0.030724
2025-11-30 0.007998 0.010358 0.013283 0.017176 0.022233 0.028590 0.037208
2025-12-07 0.006781 0.009188 0.012308 0.016653 0.022563 0.030341 0.041389
2025-12-14 0.005943 0.008373 0.011648 0.016392 0.023108 0.032305 0.045911
2025-12-21 0.005205 0.007593 0.010924 0.015922 0.023256 0.033663 0.049629
2025-12-28 0.004892 0.007370 0.010938 0.016467 0.024853 0.037151 0.056664
2026-01-04 0.004563 0.007081 0.010816 0.016778 0.026101 0.040196 0.063271
2026-01-11 0.004299 0.006858 0.010760 0.017167 0.027477 0.043516 0.070555
2026-01-18 0.003949 0.006466 0.010404 0.017040 0.028011 0.045541 0.075918
2026-01-25 0.003666 0.006150 0.010136 0.017021 0.028696 0.047836 0.081882
2026-02-01 0.003364 0.005778 0.009740 0.016748 0.028925 0.049375 0.086668
2026-02-08 0.003176 0.005583 0.009630 0.016961 0.030015 0.052482 0.094503
2026-02-15 0.002942 0.005292 0.009331 0.016820 0.030475 0.054540 0.100667
2026-02-22 0.002819 0.005184 0.009340 0.017220 0.031924 0.058445 0.110505
2026-03-01 0.002568 0.004822 0.008865 0.016695 0.031629 0.059156 0.114423
2026-03-08 0.002380 0.004559 0.008548 0.016434 0.031793 0.060713 0.120059
2026-03-15 0.002182 0.004260 0.008141 0.015963 0.031513 0.061394 0.124020
2026-03-22 0.002129 0.004239 0.008254 0.016509 0.033259 0.066107 0.136426
2026-03-29 0.002051 0.004160 0.008250 0.016820 0.034555 0.070029 0.147539
2026-04-05 0.001987 0.004104 0.008285 0.017211 0.036040 0.074437 0.160030
2026-04-12 0.001871 0.003934 0.008077 0.017084 0.036436 0.076636 0.167989
2026-04-19 0.001776 0.003797 0.007927 0.017064 0.037054 0.079339 0.177260